The Congress of Berlin by Anton Werner

Wednesday, September 18, 2024

I have joined the faculty at Georgia State University - Perimeter College

 After two fruitful years at Great Basin College, I have since July 2024 begun working at Georgia State University - Perimeter College. 

New Publication! From Arming to Fighting? The Steps to War, Mutual Military Buildups and Dispute Onset in the Greece-Ottoman Empire/Turkey Rivalries

 My newest publication is co-authored article with Dr. Nioutsikos and Mrs. Daskalopoulou, part of our broader ARCADE project that was funded by the EU. This is a follow-up to our earlier article "Breaking the Stalemate in the Study of the Relationship of Mutual Military Buildups, Arms Races, and Militarized Disputes: The Greece-Turkey/Ottoman Empire Cases" published at All Azimuth in 2023. 

In "From Arming to Fighting? The Steps to War, Mutual Military Buildups and Dispute Onset in the Greece-Ottoman Empire/Turkey Rivalries" published at Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi - Journal of International Relations, we take the method for locating Mutual Military Buildups we developed in the All Azimuth article, and applied to inferential statistics. 

Here is the abstract

"Recent developments in the operationalization of mutual military buildups raise some questions about the findings of the quantitative literature on the association of mutual military buildups (MMB) and militarized dispute (MID) onset in the Greece-Ottoman Empire and Greece-Turkey dyads. We use the novel data to evaluate that relationship, working within the Steps to War explanatory framework. The Greece-Ottoman Empire and Greece-Turkey cases are puzzles for the framework, since on the one had they have a frequent presence of the Steps to War but have far fewer wars than we would expect. Our analysis indicates that despite that puzzling incongruity the Greece - Ottoman Empire and Greece-Turkey cases are good fits for the Steps to War, except when it comes to the role of mutual military buildups. We find indicators that while the other factors of Steps to War have a positive combined association with MID onset, the inclusion of mutual military buildups renders such an association statistically insignificant. On the other hand, we do find indicators that mutual military buildups may contribute to the transition from Lesser to Severe Rivalry, as per the Steps to Rivalry. Finally, the dyads reach infection periods that make war more likely as per the Steps to War. But many expected wars do not take place. We posit two possible explanations for future research: deterrence, or major power managerial coordination."

You may read the whole article at this link .

Sunday, September 17, 2023

A brief review of The Last Days of the High Commissioner: Aristeidis Stergiadis and the August of 1922 (Oi televtaies ihmeres tou Armoste) by Konstatninos D. Vlassis

 

I was able to read a short (173 pages) book published in Greek, in Greece, focusing on clarifying the activities of Greek High Commissioner in Asia Minor, Aristeidis Stergiadis, during the collapse of the Greek Army of Asia Minor after the Turkish Grand Offensive in August 1922. It is written by Konstantinos D. Vlassis. Vlassis is a not an academic historian (he holds an MA in Modern and Contemporary History) but has made a name of himself as a popular historian focusing on the activity of Post-November 1920 anti-venizelists governments, especially during the period right before and during the collapse of the Greek position in Asia Minor/Anatolia in 1922. He has an anti-venizelist bent in his works, and aims to combat what he considers a Venizelist bias in the historiography of the war in Greece, especially among scholars and people descended from Asia Minor refugees and expellees. What makes him unique is his focus on the use of primary sources (in this way he reminds me of the non-academic historical scholar of the US Civil War, William Marvel). While one can disagree with the conclusions he extracts from those primary sources, one cannot deny that he does bring to light and uses some very interesting primary sources.

In this book he aims basically to counter both Venizelist interpretations of the events of 1922, as well as post-event rationalizations by Stergiadis himself, concerning the role the High Commission played during the period between the collapse of the Greek front, and the evacuation of the Greek government administration from Smyrna/ Izmir. On that front his most important findings are that a) Stergiadis became aware of the collapse of the front much more earlier than the Greek government, and the Commander in Chief of the Army of Asia Minor Georgios Chatzanestis, asking early on both the Greek government and the consuls of the Major Powers to arrange for the protection of the Smyrna Zone by an international force (this was rejected by the consuls) b) that Stergiadis had given an order on 19th August (O.C) to prepare the evacuation of the Greek administrative apparatus without informing the local population of that decision, that on 21/22 August (O.C) he had asked the government to prohibit the exit of the population from Asia Minor to Greece citing the lack of shipping which was focused on evacuating as much of the army as possible for use in Thrace, and that quite quickly these restrictions (between the 22 or 23rd of August) were lifted, which resulted in potentially about 200,000 Greeks, Armenians, Circassians and other anti-Kemalist Muslims evacuating to Greece before the entry of Turkish forces into Smyrna/Izmir.

Stergiadis next to Liutenant General Leonidas Paraskevopoulos (Commander in Chief of the General HQ of the Greek army 1918-1920)

For those of us interested in the military history of the war, the booklet contains some interesting information. First, the focus on evacuating as much of the army as possible had a strategic goal, which was to reinforce the Greek forces in Eastern Thrace. More importantly the primary sources presented by Vlassis (telegrams sent by the High Commission in the period between the breaking of the military front and the final evacuation of the administrative apparatus) finally provide the details of the removal of Chatzanestis from command of the Army of Asia Minor. The decision was not initiated in Athens , or by the High Commissioner. Instead it was forced upon both by the staff of the general HQ in Smyrna/Izmir where opposition to Chatzanestis was reaching the level of a potential mutiny.

Thursday, June 15, 2023

New Publication: Breaking the Stalemate in the Study of the Relationship of Mutual Military Buildups, Arms Races, and Militarized Disputes: The Greece-Turkey/Ottoman Empire Cases

 My most recent publication "Breaking the Stalemate in the Study of the Relationship of Mutual Military Buildups, Arms Races, and Militarized Disputes: The Greece-Turkey/Ottoman Empire Cases"   is now out with All Azimuth in online form. This is a co-authored piece with Ioannis Nioutsikos and Magdalini Daskalopoulou. It is part of the EU Funded ARCADE Porject.

You can get the gist of the argument from my narrated power point video in this post.

Essentially we argue for a new method for locating mutual military buildups in dyads, and use the Greece-Turkey/Ottoman Empire dyad as a model case. For replication data please consult the relevant page of this webpage. 

Monday, April 10, 2023

Narrated Lecture on Breaking the Stalemate in the study of the relationship of Mutual Military Buildups, Arms Races and Militarized Disputes: The Greece-Turkey/Ottoman Empire Cases

 I have prepared a video narration of my MPSA presentation on the paper "Breaking the Stalemate in the study of the relationship of Mutual Military Buildups, Arms Races and Militarized Disputes: The Greece-Turkey/Ottoman Empire Cases" which is under publication with All Azimuth . This co-authored paper is part of the larger ARCADE project supported by the Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation (H.F.R.I.) under the “2nd Call for H.F.R.I. Research Projects to support Post-Doctoral Researchers” (Project Number: 00789, ARCADE), a major grant project I am part of focusing on exploring the role of Mutual Military Buildups, Arms Races and there association with conflict onset in the Greece-Ottoman Empire/Turkey dyad 



Friday, February 10, 2023

Finally closed my professional Twitter Account

 I have closed my professional twitter account. I have come to believe that at least in the case of the USA, Twitter(and most instantaneous social media) have become a force that makes politics more difficult rather than easier. I am also opposed to Mr. Musk and his political stance and outsized influence in or politics. Of course all USA citizens have a right to free speech and to petition their goverment. This is the bedrock of the uniqueness of our political system, a system that despite it's many flaws I still believe better suited to human happiness than many other. I will not be part of the mob that tries to burn it down either in the name of Biblical God, or Das Kapital (this does not affect my determination to teach both perspectives to students). You can keep up with my research and teaching developments through this website/blog. 

Saturday, January 14, 2023

New Publication: Caricaturing the enemy: caricatures and the Greek-Turkish War 1919-1922

Our publication, me, Ceren Mert-Travlos,and Doruk Akyuz,  "Caricaturing the enemy: caricatures and the Greek-Turkish War 1919-1922", is now published in the European Journal of Humour Research. In it we explore the manifestation of the enmity inherent in the concept of interstate rivalry via caricatures produced in Greece and Turkey during the 1919-1922 Greece-Turkey War

You may access the open access document at this link  (https://europeanjournalofhumour.org/ejhr/article/view/707)