New Publication! From Arming to Fighting? The Steps to War, Mutual Military Buildups and Dispute Onset in the Greece-Ottoman Empire/Turkey Rivalries

 My newest publication is co-authored article with Dr. Nioutsikos and Mrs. Daskalopoulou, part of our broader ARCADE project that was funded by the EU. This is a follow-up to our earlier article "Breaking the Stalemate in the Study of the Relationship of Mutual Military Buildups, Arms Races, and Militarized Disputes: The Greece-Turkey/Ottoman Empire Cases" published at All Azimuth in 2023. 

In "From Arming to Fighting? The Steps to War, Mutual Military Buildups and Dispute Onset in the Greece-Ottoman Empire/Turkey Rivalries" published at Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi - Journal of International Relations, we take the method for locating Mutual Military Buildups we developed in the All Azimuth article, and applied to inferential statistics. 

Here is the abstract

"Recent developments in the operationalization of mutual military buildups raise some questions about the findings of the quantitative literature on the association of mutual military buildups (MMB) and militarized dispute (MID) onset in the Greece-Ottoman Empire and Greece-Turkey dyads. We use the novel data to evaluate that relationship, working within the Steps to War explanatory framework. The Greece-Ottoman Empire and Greece-Turkey cases are puzzles for the framework, since on the one had they have a frequent presence of the Steps to War but have far fewer wars than we would expect. Our analysis indicates that despite that puzzling incongruity the Greece - Ottoman Empire and Greece-Turkey cases are good fits for the Steps to War, except when it comes to the role of mutual military buildups. We find indicators that while the other factors of Steps to War have a positive combined association with MID onset, the inclusion of mutual military buildups renders such an association statistically insignificant. On the other hand, we do find indicators that mutual military buildups may contribute to the transition from Lesser to Severe Rivalry, as per the Steps to Rivalry. Finally, the dyads reach infection periods that make war more likely as per the Steps to War. But many expected wars do not take place. We posit two possible explanations for future research: deterrence, or major power managerial coordination."

You may read the whole article at this link .

Narrated Lecture on Breaking the Stalemate in the study of the relationship of Mutual Military Buildups, Arms Races and Militarized Disputes: The Greece-Turkey/Ottoman Empire Cases

 I have prepared a video narration of my MPSA presentation on the paper "Breaking the Stalemate in the study of the relationship of Mutual Military Buildups, Arms Races and Militarized Disputes: The Greece-Turkey/Ottoman Empire Cases" which is under publication with All Azimuth . This co-authored paper is part of the larger ARCADE project supported by the Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation (H.F.R.I.) under the “2nd Call for H.F.R.I. Research Projects to support Post-Doctoral Researchers” (Project Number: 00789, ARCADE), a major grant project I am part of focusing on exploring the role of Mutual Military Buildups, Arms Races and there association with conflict onset in the Greece-Ottoman Empire/Turkey dyad 

Lost Maps

 I had prepared these maps of three battles during the First and Second Balkan Wars, during my work on the wargames scenario book "Bloody Big Balkan Battles". Two of them were lost with the destruction of my old portable hard drive and the closing of my old hobby blog. Thankfully I was able to extract them via the Wayback Machine. I am making them once more available through here. These are maps based on academic sources, and thus count as an academic source. 

Click for a larger image

Our New MA Program.

 Here is a video were I  introduce my research  to prospective students our new MA program at Ozyegin University, Department of International Relations. 

News on Salvation and Catastrophe: The Greek-Turkish War 1919-1922

 The edited volume I organized is now available in paperback, at a much more approachable price.You can reach it here.

IMaC DSC Data Updated! The Middle East Arab-Israeli Lemke DSC

I have added a link to the folder containing the IMaC information for the durable security complex based on Lemke's Middle East Arab-Israeli Regional Hierarchy. You can reach it at the IMaC Research Page

IMaC DSC Data Updated! The Middle East Northern Rim Lemke DSC

I have added a link to the folder containing the IMaC information for the durable security complex based on Lemke's Middle East Northern Rim Regional Hierarchy. You can reach it at the IMaC Research Page

IMaC DSC Data Updated! The South American Atlantic Coast Lemke DSC

The IMaC data for the South American Atlantic Coast Local Hierarchy DSC defined by Lemke (including Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay) is now up in the IMaC Research Page

New Public Engangment: Συμμαχίες και άμεσο μέλλον της ελληνοτουρκικής διακρατικής αντιπαλότητας

 I have written another piece in Greek, presenting the findings of the Conflict Process tradition in the study conflict and peace on the relationship between alliances and war. 

See it at Huffington Post Συμμαχίες και άμεσο μέλλον της ελληνοτουρκικής διακρατικής αντιπαλότητας

Book Launch Event Recording

 We concluded the Book Launch event for "Salvation and Catastrophe: The Greek-Turkish War 1919-1922" organized by the Department of International Relations at Ozyegin University.

You can watch a recording of the event at YouTube

New public engnagment item: Περί κατευνασμού και φινλαδοποίησης

My most recent layperson contribution to strategic debate in Greece can be found at https://www.huffingtonpost.gr/entry/peri-kateenasmoe-kai-finladopoieses_gr_5fab918bc5b635e9de9d325e?utm_hp_ref=gr-homepage

 

In it I discuss the concept of accommodation and surrender, and when it is wise to make that choice by using the example of Denmark in 1940.  This is part of my burgeoning research interest on asymmetrical interstate rivalries.

The Turkish War of Independence A Military History, 1919-1923 by Edward J. Erickson

 I contributed to his new book The Turkish War of Independence A Military History, 1919-1923, which fills a large gap in the English-language literature. 

Progress of my edited book volume

 My edited volume "Salvation and Catastrophe: The Greek-Turkish War" is in the production phase with Lexington Books. You can access it's page here. It is expected to be out in October 2020. Please order it for your university or public library. While the cover is not finalized, this is the last draft I was given. 

Old Ideas: A Note on Periodisation in Conflict Studies

 (This is from an old exchange I had with Peter Wallensteen, unfortunately I do not have access to his answer. Pretty much a discussion on whether periodisation in conflict studies creates a selection bias.)

Or conflict studies for that matter? Good Question.

I would argue that when we periodisize the temporal domain of our theories we are essentially including another variable in our models. This is because periodization is always done on the basis of some variable and the values it takes. Thus a lot of the concerns that come with including variables in a model also apply to including periods. First of all one must choose which variable out off many possible is going to be the criterion on which periods will be demarcated. The choice of demarcation is crucial for not all possible demarcations are mutually inclusive or mutually exclusive. The first case, of mutually inclusive demarcations, can create ambiguity of results, while the second, of mutual exclusive demarcations, can lead to the muting of the effect of some important variable X that our demarcation variable leaves out.

Managerial norms, Peace and the onset of Types of Wars

 Managerial norms, Peace and the onset of Types of Wars (a brief look)

by Konstantinos Travlos

Introduction

The First Hague Peace Conference, 1899

Recently I have been reading a lot on the Congress of Vienna. This is for the next article I am working on, on the theme of the causes and consequences of interstate managerial coordination (for the earlier foundations of this concept see Travlos 2014 ). My ideas on this were partly influenced by Peter Wallensteen's early work on universalism and particularism (Wallensteen 1984). In my exploration of those ideas I came face to face with the argument that any inter-state peace built on managerial coordination will have the price of increased warfare of other types, mainly wars between states and polities that are not recognized as states, wars within states, and war between non-state polities. The logic behind this position is that thanks to inter-state peace a) states are more able to engage in aggression against non-states, or interfere in non-state interrelations b) states are more likely to intervene in other states during their civil wars, rather than dealing with the results of the wars on the inter-state level.

Large scale warfare outside Europe in the 1715-1789 period according to Langer.

 An overview of large scale warfare outside Europe in the 1715-1789 period according to Langer.

By Konstantinos Travlos

"Those of you who have been following my research (all two of you), know that I am engaged in major data project whose goal is to create a Militarized Dispute (MIDs) Dataset for the 1715-1815 period. My initial forays into this en-devour where more ecumenical with a goal of creating a dataset of wars between polities in the 1715-1815 period on a global level. In the end I decided to put off non-european polities for the future and only focus on the European interstate system as a first step. This was driven primarily by the richer documentation available for Europe in the 1715-1815 period, and the great likelihood of finding non-war MIDs in sources on Europe as opposed to sources on the rest of the world. That said future plans do include a war data-set among polities in the rest of the world for the era. Cleaning up my file folders I found this little piece I had written based on my early explorations. I am putting here for the sake of scholarly curiosity."

The Thai and the Burmese fight 

Excerpt from Research Project: Datasets focusing on temporal domains before 1815.

 As part of a Rapid Evidence Assessment Project I am conducting (waiting professional editing to be sent out for review) I collected in one point information on all the conflict-political science Data-sets containing data that extends before 1815. A pared down version of this collection can be found in the a table below. The REA was produced by looking at articles from three quantitative friendly international relations conflict journals between 1970 and 2014. This might be a useful resource for scholars wondering what data is out there that looks to the past. For more information you will have to wait for the published article.

Webinar: The Greek-Turkish Rivalry

 We finished the webinar organised by the Department of International Relations of Ozyegin University (and the student OZU Diplomacy Club)  on the Greek-Turkish Rivalry "Nereye Gidiyorsun/Που πάμε"

Me, Dr. Zuhal Mert Uzuner (Marmara University), Dr. Mesut Uyar (Antalya Bilim University) and Dr. Dionysios Tsirigotis (University of Piraeus) discussed the Greek-Turkish Rivalry and increasing tensions. It was a pluralist discussion with contributions from history, peace science ,conflict process, constructivism and structural realism. Topics ranged from underlying factors pushing to conflict, to the role of images and ideas, and the potential to change them by both state action (small) and direct individual action (more promising).

Main take-away points on this discussion for me were the following

1) It is unlikely that a Greek-Turkish War will erupt any time soon (I was the most pessimistic going in. The other three contributors, based on radically different paradigms and perspectives, all concluded that the chance of war was low at this point)

2) There is a need for academics to practice more ground-up peace-building, rather than reiterating state positions.

3) There is a need for opening the black box of national histories in order to produce more holistic perspectives

4) That said, the contours of rivalry due put limits to how far these efforts at ground-up diplomacy and changing of images can do, without nullifying their worth

5) Good peacemaking must marry perspectives on ideas and images with perspectives on hard political questions.

Suggested Reading Package on the Greek-Turkish Rivalry

 We are organizing a webinar with three choice colleagues Dr. Zuhal Mert Uzuner, Dr. Mesut Uyar, and Dr. Dionysios Tsirigotis on the current state of the Greek-Turkish interstate rivalry. As part of it I asked each of them to suggest up to five books or articles they consider as useful reading for those interested to learn more. We tried to present a diversity of perspectives and authors (I do apologise for the low gender diversity).

Aggelos Syrigos (2015) Greek-Turkish relations. Athens, Patakis. (In Greek)

Alexis Heraclides (2011) Imagined Enemies: The Aegean Conflict, Mediterranean Politics, 16:2, 221-239

Arnold Toynbee (1922) The Western Question in Greece and Turkey. Houghton Mifflin Company

Bahar Rumelili ed. (2015) Conflict Resolution and Ontological Security: Peace Anxieties. Routledge

This is a good overview of a useful explanatory framework for addressing the ideational part of the Greek-Turkish Rivalry. Some of the contributions speak directly to the Greek-Turkish case, though the volume in general is an overview.

Christos Rozakis (1989) “Greek Turkish Disputes: The Legal Aspects”, in
Contemporary Greek Foreign Policy ed. by Constans & Tsardanidis, (Athens&
Komotini: Sakoulas)

Deniz Bolukbasi(2004) Turkey and Greece. The Aegean disputes. A Unique Case in International Law, London, Cavendish.

Dimitri Kitsikis (1991) L'Empire Ottoman (Türk-Yunan İmparatorluğu). Presses Universitaires de France

Dimitris Constas ed.(1991) The Greek-Turkish Confict in the 1990s: Domestic and External Influences.London: Macmillan.

Dionysios Tsirigotis (2013) Modern and Current Greek History. International Relations and Diplomacy. Athens, Piotita (In Greek).

Herkül Millas (1995) Türk-Yunan İlişkilerine Bir Önsöz: Tencere Dibin Kara. Kavram Yayınları

Ilay Romain Ors (2018) Diaspora of the City. New York: Plagrave Macmillan

This recent volume is an interesting constructivist look at an aspect of the Greek-Turkish relationship that is not always considered in discussion of the Greek-Turkish rivalry. This is the role of nostalgia in thinking about the Other and the formation of images of enmity-amity.

Ioannis Th. Mazis (2005) Greece’s New Defence Doctrine:A Framework Proposal. CRiSSMA Working Paper No. 8, Milano: I.S.U.Università Cattolicas

This is a good introduction to the dominant analytical framework underpinning the group of scholars, publicists, and decision makers who call for an escalation of the Greek deterrence policy towards Turkey.

Krebs R.R. (1999) Perverse Institutionalism: NATO and the Greco-Turkish Conflict, International Organization / Volume 53 / Issue 02 / March 1999, pp 343 – 377.

Paul D. Sense and John A.Vasquez (2008) The Steps to War. Princeton University Press

A useful explanatory framework for understanding how conflictual relationships and conflict processes lead dyads of state to war.

Thanos Dokos (2012) The evolving security environment in the eastern Mediterranean: is NATO still a relevant actor?, Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, 12:4, 575-590

Tozun Bahcheli (1990) Greek-Turkish Relations, Westeview Press

This approachable volume is a good presentation of the Turkish view on Greek-Turkish relations. While a bit dated, it is remarkable how some of the argued for conditions of peace are still present in official Turkish state discourse.

The Greek-Turkish Interstate Rivalry and the likelihood of War

 The Greek-Turkish Interstate Rivalry and the likelihood of War 

by Konstantinos Travlos, PhD

In this post I am going to go over the reasons why I argue that a Greek-Turkish war is over-determined. This post is based on a review of a large body of scholarship in the study of international relations. But it is not a scholarly post. References are indicative, not exhaustive. The analysis is based on the explanatory framework of The Steps to War developed by Paul D. Senese and John A. Vasquez (The Steps to War, 2008, Princeton University Press).  Before starting let me explain what I mean by over-determined.

An event is over-determined when the majority of associated variables for which we have a grasp, foster the occurrence of an event. This does not mean the event will happen, only that it's aversion is now based on factors which we do not grasp yet.

So over-determined does not mean inevitable.

Also, even if the following factors do not push the Greek-Turkish Interstate Rivalry to war, they can push it to a deterioration of relations that can increase the likelihood of war. While the Greek-Turkish Interstate rivalry falls in the Severe Rivalry category of the Goertz, Diehl and Balas Peace Scale (The Puzzle of Peace, Oxford University Press, 2016), which is the most conflict prone type of interstate relation,  there is variation within that category between .for example, severe rivalries of the USSR-USA Cold War type and the Iran-Israel type. Thus the danger in the Turkish-Greek interstate relationship is that the same factors that foster war, can foster further deterioration of relations, that later increase the likelihood of war.

So what are the factors that push for a Greek-Turkish War?
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