The Congress of Berlin by Anton Werner

Tuesday, September 8, 2020

Progress of my edited book volume

 My edited volume "Salvation and Catastrophe: The Greek-Turkish War" is in the production phase with Lexington Books. You can access it's page here. It is expected to be out in October 2020. Please order it for your university or public library. While the cover is not finalized, this is the last draft I was given. 




Tuesday, August 18, 2020

Old Ideas: A Note on Periodisation in Conflict Studies

 (This is from an old exchange I had with Peter Wallensteen, unfortunately I do not have access to his answer. Pretty much a discussion on whether periodisation in conflict studies creates a selection bias.)


Or conflict studies for that matter? Good Question.

I would argue that when we periodisize the temporal domain of our theories we are essentially including another variable in our models. This is because periodization is always done on the basis of some variable and the values it takes. Thus a lot of the concerns that come with including variables in a model also apply to including periods. First of all one must choose which variable out off many possible is going to be the criterion on which periods will be demarcated. The choice of demarcation is crucial for not all possible demarcations are mutually inclusive or mutually exclusive. The first case, of mutually inclusive demarcations, can create ambiguity of results, while the second, of mutual exclusive demarcations, can lead to the muting of the effect of some important variable X that our demarcation variable leaves out.

Monday, August 17, 2020

Student Risk of War Analysis:Turkey-Iran

 

As part of my IR 315: Peace and Conflict Course I had students conduct a Risk of War analysis of a dangerous dyad according to the Simple Risk Barometer developed in Steps to War by Paul Senese and John A. Vasquez. In this series I will upload to the blog the ones I felt were the best. The goal is to show that with some training anyone can use Steps to War to get a handle on current events and the likelihood of war. 


Turkey-Iran 
Emre Kocmar 

Contemporary paper with risks of war:
Even though it has soured on certain occasions since the Arab Spring, Iran and Turkey seems to enjoy generally peaceful relationship. Although lacking a common ideology regarding the region both nations reside in an idea of war between Turkey and Iran seems rather unlikely. Therefore i will use Paul Senese and John A. Vasquez’s framework of Steps to War in order to show
why Iranian-Turkish Dyad is a relatively peaceful one.

Student Risk of War Analysis:Colombia-Venezuela

 As part of my IR 315: Peace and Conflict Course I had students conduct a Risk of War analysis of a dangerous dyad according to the Simple Risk Barometer developed in Steps to War by Paul Senese and John A. Vasquez. In this series I will upload to the blog the ones I felt were the best. The goal is to show that with some training anyone can use Steps to War to get a handle on current events and the likelihood of war. 


Colombia-Venezuela

Sena Uzun


Latin America has experienced many problems that have generated from border migration-drug issues and smuggling throughout the history. Among the ongoing rivalries are the source of continuing tension and raises the possibility of militarized border disputes. There have been numerous MIDs those occurred in the region, on average more than once a year throughout the twentieth century. Nonetheless, these MIDs rarely rose to the level of war, occurring only 2.5% of the time. This paper focuses on the risk of a possible war between two Latin American states: Colombia and Venezuela. The two countries share a border of over 2,219 kilometres- contiguity is an important factor in this dyad that should be kept in mind.

I will use Steps to War frame by Senese-Vasquez to analyse the level of bellicosity of Colombia- Venezuela dyad. Senese-Vasquez developed the Risk of War Barometer which offers a prediction of the risk of war regarding four basic steps to war: (1) presence of territorial disputes, (2) the presence of outside allies, (3) the repetition of MIDs and (4) an ongoing arms race. Any combination of these factors is counted as increasing the risk of war.

Student Risk of War Analysis: Turkey-Republic of Cyprus

As part of my IR 315: Peace and Conflict Course I had students conduct a Risk of War analysis of a dangerous dyad according to the Simple Risk Barometer developed in Steps to War by Paul Senese and John A. Vasquez. In this series I will upload to the blog the ones I felt were the best. The goal is to show that with some training anyone can use Steps to War to get a handle on current events and the likelihood of war. 
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Turkey-Republic of Cyprus
by Eyl├╝l Ozcan

Cyprus has been divided since 1974, when a coup d’etat inspired by the Greek locals of the island prompted a Turkish military intervention and occupation of the northern part of the island. The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus was declared in 1983, and has only been recognized by Turkey. Turkey has been demanding that TRNC be recognized since then. Since the division by the “green line” the Turks and Greeks have been living separately and have been patrolled by the United Nations. With the accession of Southern side of the island to the European Union on 2004, the parameters of the conflict have been changed. 





Student Risk of War Analysis: US-Iran

 As part of my IR 315: Peace and Conflict Course I had students conduct a Risk of War analysis of a dangerous dyad according to the Simple Risk Barometer developed in Steps to War by Paul Senese and John A. Vasquez. In this series I will upload to the blog the ones I felt were the best. The goal is to show that with some training anyone can use Steps to War to get a handle on current events and the likelihood of war. 


United States of America-Iran
Derya Saygili

US-Iran relations were tense especially since the Iranian Revolution. This dyad seems to be worrisome due to the concerns over the nuclear proliferation of Iran by US. And since the Syrian War broke out, the stance of US and Iran in that matter is opposite. All these events could be worrisome, but it does not necessarily mean a war between this dyad is of high chance. We can explain this by looking at simple risk barometer for war and can further explain the context of what has been happening between the two states on recent issues.