The Congress of Berlin by Anton Werner

Monday, May 12, 2025

Pithy Insights from exploring Correlates of War Data

Here are some pithy insights from my explorations of Correlates of War Dat


"The most conflict prone major power is not necceserilly the oldest" 

"South American Wars were more likley to be fought at a 1 to 3 capability distribution" 

"If one looks at wars fought beyond Europe, one quickly sees that certain powers were much more conflict prone than assumed, if one just focuses on wars fought in europe"

 "In strictly dyadic wars, the side with more capabilities tends to win"

"Do not just look at who won wars, also consider who lost."

"Few interstate wars are true fair fights"

"Since the initiation of war is a choice, most initiators prefer to start wars when the balance of capabilities heavily benefits them" 

"The total number of pure dyadic wars, is 44"

"The median pure dyadic war saw a 43% difference between the average capabilities of the weaker and stronger sides"